For the first time in at least 50 years, more immigrants left the United States than entered in 2025, according to new estimates released by economists at the Brookings Institution. Their analysis puts net migration last year somewhere between negative 10,000 and negative 295,000, marking a sharp reversal after years of strong immigration-driven population growth. The researchers attribute the shift mainly to a steep slowdown in new arrivals under President Donald Trump’s administration, including the near-closure of the US-Mexico border, higher visa fees, tighter restrictions, and the termination of many humanitarian and refugee programs.

While deportations played a role, the economists say they were not the main driver. They estimate around 300,000 deportations in 2025, significantly lower than the roughly 600,000 cited by the Trump administration. The report also challenges government claims of mass “self-deportation,” contrasting official statements of 1.9 million voluntary exits with Brookings’s estimate of 200,000 to 400,000 voluntary departures. Other institutions disagree on the scale of the shift: the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated net migration was still positive in 2025, highlighting how reduced data transparency and differing assumptions are producing sharply conflicting figures.

The economists warn that negative net migration carries serious economic consequences. They project weaker employment growth, lower GDP, and a drop in consumer spending of between $60 billion and $110 billion across 2025 and 2026, as immigrants leave and remaining households cut back. Job creation has already slowed sharply, making last year the second-weakest for employment growth since the Great Recession. With the US population aging and birth rates declining, the researchers caution that sustained negative immigration could reshape the country’s long-term economic and demographic outlook.