Global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.6°C by 2100, according to new assessments by Climate Action Tracker and the Global Carbon Project. The CAT update, released ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, found that current national climate pledges remain far too weak to limit fossil fuel emissions, which have reached record levels. GCP figures show fossil fuel emissions are expected to grow by about 1% this year, with coal, oil, and gas use still rising, although more slowly than in past decades. Renewable energy expansion is close to matching global demand growth but has not overtaken it.

CAT researchers warn that the forecasted 2.6°C of warming far exceeds the Paris Agreement goals and stems from governments failing to submit stronger national climate plans. Only about 100 countries have updated their commitments, and global warming has risen toward 2.2°C even when net zero targets are included. The planet has already warmed by roughly 1.3°C since the Industrial Revolution, resulting in stronger storms, wildfires, and droughts.

The broader reports highlight that natural carbon sinks are weakening, with tropical forests in parts of Southeast Asia and South America now emitting more CO2 than they absorb due to warming and deforestation. Delegates at COP30 heard calls from the G77 plus China for a just transition away from fossil fuels, while some major economies withheld support. Analysts warn CO2 levels may reach 425 ppm by 2025, and researchers stress that rapid renewable energy deployment, declining coal use, and coordinated global action remain central to preventing further escalation.