Tom Barrack told the audience in Abu Dhabi that Israel is unlikely to defeat Hezb-ollah through military force, arguing that targeting individual fighters only fuels more resistance. He pointed to Iran as an example, saying the US had already attempted “two regime changes” there and “none of them worked.” Framed as personal opinions, his comments still suggested that political outcomes in the region remain problems Washington believes it should shape or solve, even as local realities move in different directions.

He went on to say he hopes Congress will repeal the Caesar Act now that the US, Israel and their allies have removed Bashar al-Assad and installed former Al Qaeeda leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa(Jolani) in Syria. Barrack described sanctions relief as a way to open the door for US and Gulf investment, effectively positioning American economic interests at the centre of Syria’s future. His remarks on Turkiye followed a similar pattern. Predicting that Ankara will move away from its Russian S-400 system, he framed the shift as part of a natural course, despite the fact that it aligns neatly with Washington’s long-standing push to draw regional states back under its security umbrella.

Barrack also highlighted the expanding network of US-backed military deals, from Israel’s growing F-35 fleet to the White House agreement to supply Saudi Arabia with a less advanced version of the jet. He presented these arrangements, along with the “bromance” between Trump and Erdogan, as signs of improving ties. Taken together, his statements mapped out a familiar picture: the US inserting itself into negotiations, sanctions regimes, military partnerships and leadership changes across the Middle East, often framing deeper involvement as the path to stability while tightening its own influence on the region’s direction.